Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Instability in Nigeria: Evidence from GVAR
The study examines the relationship between oil price shocks and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. It adopts a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which includes Nigeria's major trade partners, in examining the relationship. This provides a holistic picture of how oil price shocks are conveyed to Nigeria via the first round as well as through the spillover effects. The variables employed are Real Gross Domestic Product (y), inflation (Dp), short-term interest rate (r), money supply (ms), and real effective exchange (epeps) as the domestic variables, while oil price is included as global variable. Quarterly data were used spanning the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1. The economies included are Nigeria, the United States, Euro Area, India, China, Brazil, United Kingdom and South Africa. The findings of the study reveal that an upsurge in oil price leads to increase in real output, money supply as well as a mild increase in the real effective exchange rates of Nigeria while inflation and short-term interest rate fall.
Mustafa Gürol Durak - firstname.lastname@example.org
Meltem İnce Yenilmez - email@example.com
Copyright (c) 2019 International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The Author(s) must make formal transfer of copyright for each article prior to publication in the International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences. Such transfer enables the Journal to defend itself against plagiarism and other forms of copyright infringement. Your cooperation is appreciated. You agree that copyright of your article to be published in the International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences is hereby transferred, throughout the World and for the full term and all extensions and renewals thereof, to International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences.
The Author(s) reserve(s): (a) the trademark rights and patent rights, if any, and (b) the right to use all or part of the information contained in this article in future, non-commercial works of the Author's own, or, if the article is a "work-for-hire" and made within the scope of the Author's employment, the employer may use all or part of the information contained in this article for intra-company use, provided the usual acknowledgements are given regarding copyright notice and reference to the original publication.
The Author(s) warrant(s) that the article is Author's original work, and has not been published before. If excerpts from copyrighted works are included, the Author will obtain written permission from the copyright owners and shall credit the sources in the article. The author also warrants that the article contains no libelous or unlawful statements, and does not infringe on the rights of others. If the article was prepared jointly with other Author(s), the Author agrees to inform the co-Author(s) of the terms of the copyright transfer and to sign on their behalf; or in the case of a "work-for-hire" the employer or an authorized representative of the employer.
The journal is registered with the ISSN : 1925-4423.
IJCEAS is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This license lets others distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon your work, even commercially, as long as they credit you for the original creation. This is the most accommodating of licenses offered. Recommended for maximum dissemination and use of licensed materials.